Who moves first?

Happy New Year.

So, now that the silly season is almost over, lets get back to what we do best around here, trying to guess future mortgage rate movements.

The last OCR announcement was end of November with the next one in February. The reserve bank indicated more cuts were on the cards for February and with both the recent and revised GDP showing worse than expected, the cut is now expected to be another 50bp.

The swap rates have responded with the 1 year rate dropping from 3.9% on 29th Nov to 3.55% today and the 2 year swap going from 3.61% to 3.38%. (May be slightly off as interest.co.nz was having some issues loading this morning for me)

However, since the GDP results on the 19th December, we have heard little from the banks due to it being the Christmas break period. With tomorrow being the start of "normal" working weeks, it is my humble guess, we'll see some slight movement in fixed rates this week as bank try grab some early news headlines and business.

Does anyone want to hazard a guess on who moves first and what they move by? Or disagree and think they'll wait till the Feb announcement? Interested to hear your educated ( or uneducated) guesses?