Are we reliving the 1930s ultimate mix of rise to conflict again?

This is not a statement - it's a question based on a couple of concerns

The signals :

Economic Instability

  • 1930s : Great depression led to widespread economic impact, high unemployment and social unrest.
  • Today : Economic uncertainties are rising, we see impact on inequality, recession and unemployment rates growing steadily. Global debt levels reaching a record high of $220 Trillion after the covid pandemic loans

Nationalism and Populism

  • 1930s : Nationalist and facism movements gained huge momentum and people were in need of leadership to restore national pride and address economic issues
  • Today : Nationalist and right-wing populist movements are rising in many countries, often as reaction to europeanization, globalization and cultural pressure. We also witnessed movements such as Brexit emphasizing national sovereignty and better control over immigration.

Geopolitical Tensions

  • 1930s : Territorial ambitions and unresolved grievances from World War I led to aggressive expansionism by countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan.
  • Today : There are ongoing territorial disputes and power struggles, particularly involving major powers like the US, China, and Russia. There are major escalations going on as of right now (Ukraine, Israel)

Cultural and Identity conflicts

  • 1930s : Anti-Semitism, racism, and xenophobia were rampant, leading to discriminatory policies and violence.
  • Today : Similar cultural and identity conflicts are evident, with rising xenophobia, anti-immigrant sentiment, and ethnic tensions. There also seems to be a rise of "anti-culture"

Militarism and military spend

  • 1930s : post WW1 conflict, there was an increased focus on militarism and military spend
  • Today : Global military expenditure has been rising to over 2 trillion and is constantly growing

Some key differences that could help prevent further escalation

  • Organizations like UN, NATO and other regional instances should help in conflict prevention and resolution.
  • Large scale wars would be economically damaging to many involved parties as we have a highly interconnected world
  • Nuclear deterrence
  • Technology (although this could easily be seen as conflict facilitator)

So - are we seeing the same signals building up over time again? Are we on the verge of larger conflict? What's your take on it?