Somali nationalists want Ogaden to reunite with Somalia—A country even Somaliland and Puntland are fleeing from.

Reunification with Somalia or independence for Ogaden is a risky path, especially when considering Eritrea’s post-independence struggles. Eritrea fought for independence but is now ruled by a repressive dictatorship with limited economic opportunities and no international recognition. If Ogaden sought independence or joined Somalia, it could face a similar fate: economic stagnation, political isolation, and internal instability.

Somalia’s current state further supports the argument against reunification. The country has weak, corrupt institutions and struggles with clan-based politics, making it difficult to achieve national unity or effective governance. Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups are a constant threat, and clan conflicts destabilize the region. Ogaden is already facing spillover from these issues, and joining Somalia would expose it to further insecurity and a lack of political autonomy.

In contrast, Ethiopia offers Ogaden a more stable and promising future. Despite its flaws, Ethiopia’s federal system provides some regional autonomy and allows Ogaden to maintain its Somali identity. The country is investing in infrastructure and has the potential for stronger institutions and economic growth. Ogaden could benefit from these developments, enjoying more security and opportunities than in Somalia or as an independent state.

In conclusion, Ogaden is better off staying within Ethiopia. Somalia’s weak institutions, corruption, and security threats, as well as the lessons from Eritrea’s failed independence, make staying in Ethiopia a more stable and prosperous choice for the region’s future.