Trump Presidency Predictions for China

Now that Trump has won the presidency, here are a few predictions.

  1. Tariffs: About 50% of Amazon's Top 10,000 stores come from China. Amazon products, especially off label products for the US will become more expensive and many of the Chinese stores will not be as competitive, so it might be a good idea to start a store, source from China, but ship from Vietnam with component plus. (99% finished good, shipped to Vietnam, add a small component and say made in Vietnam).

  2. H1B's from China will only be allowed on an extreme case by case basis. Expect fewer Chinese graduates staying in the US.

  3. Trump will isolate the US, so Ukraine is toast. Expect China to take a greater role in the world, especially in Asia, Africa and perhaps Europe, while the US focuses on improving it's domestic economy and policies.

  4. Expect Chinese EV's in the US perhaps even over German cars if they are manufactured in the US. With tariffs both on China and European cars, Chinese EVs can go to Trump and tell him they'll build manufacturing in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

  5. Expect less rhetoric about Xinjiang or Hong Kong rights, but more about the economy.

  6. Expect more restrictions on Chinese tech in the US although. Tik Tok could go either way as Musk is probably anti Tik Tok. Wechat might be in trouble.

  7. Expect more Anti China rhetoric in areas where US is not doing well. The China initiative is likely to start back again.

  8. Taiwan is probably in a more precarious situation and could be used as an economic bargaining tool.

So some good for China, some bad. not sure where the net is.