TLRY vs GTBIF vs MJ Industry

There is a lot of commentary, and disappointment, about TLRY's recent earnings, TLRY share price, and the MJ Industry as a whole. Here are my thoughts, for whatever it's worth.

MJ stocks will likely not increase until there is a major industry-wide catalyst. Two of which I potentially see over the next 1-2 years are rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III in the US and mergers/partnership/acquisitions with larger non MJ companies. The latter meaning the MJ industry starts to partner with big pharma (Merck/Pfizer) and/or big beverage companies (Coke/Pepsi/Budweiser).

Take a look at Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) recent earnings report, from November 7, 2024: -3Q GAAP net income of $9 million or $0.04 per basic and diluted share. -3Q adjusted EBITDA of $89 million (31% of revenue). -Nine months cash flow from operations of $152 million, net of $88 million of tax payments. -Retired $225 million senior debt, due 4/30/25. -Authorized $50 million for the repurchase of Subordinate Voting Shares from September 23, 2024 to September 22, 2025.

Since the earnings report the stock has dropped from $10.70/share to $7.39/share. This is a 31% decline in two months, after reporting solid earnings and a stock repurchase plan.

While TLRY's earnings remain weak, there is some excitement around international cannabis sales and infused beverages in the US, Canada, etc. The company is making progress, but faces significant headwinds on taxes, regulations, competition, etc.

My point in comparing the two stocks, it is my belief, that no matter how solid earnings are, until a major catalyst for the industry happens, individual company performance will not be appropriately rewarded. My hope is that at least one catalyst occurs in 2025, with rescheduling in the US as the most likely, in my personal opinion. Once that happens, it should open up other catalysts, including SAFE banking, partnerships/mergers/acquisitions, investment inflows from institutions and hedge funds (who are largely not allowed to invest in MJ stocks since the product remains illegal at the federal level). TLRY, GTBIF, and all other MJ stocks will likely not be able to sustain any reasonable long-term rally until a major catalyst occurs.

May we all pray to the MJ Gods for rescheduling to occur this year. Then....we can moon.

Holding 20,000+ TLRY shares long. This is only my personal opinion and is not considered investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.