Checking in with the rookie and sophomore NFL quarterbacks:
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Over the last two drafts, ten quarterbacks were selected within the first 33 picks respectively and now that all but one of them have logged double-digit starts, I thought it was time to review what they’ve shown. I will provide my general thoughts, aided by some advanced metrics, and express my level of confidence in their long-time viability at the pro level.
Just to be clear, I won’t be discussing this year’s eighth and eighth overall selections Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), who only saw very limited action in mop-up duty and unfortunately got hurt after a promising preseason showing respectively. Therefore, we’ll be looking at four guys from each of those draft classes.
Let’s dive in, going by chronological order of when they got selected:
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Bryce Young, Panthers
4-17 record as starter; 59.9% completion rate, 160.7 passing yards per game, 15 TDs vs. 16 INTs, 14.1 rushing yards per game, 1 rushing TD, 6 fumbles lost
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Following in the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones at Alabama, Young never won a national championship like his predecessor but became the first quarterback for this illustrious university to win the Heisman trophy and subsequently emboldened Panthers owner Dave Tepper to spend the farm on a trade-up to the first overall pick in the 2023 draft for him. From a physical perspective, this was always an outlier, but his tremendous instincts and feel for the game were undeniable. Statistically, you can’t really make any case for Bryce having shown he can even be a viable starter in this league unfortunately. Over these first two years, the only guys who rank behind him in EPA per play (-0.189) and dropback success rate (38.0%) respectively are Zach Wilson and Deshaun Watson, looking at the 41 names with 300+ dropbacks.
He got benched just two weeks into his second season, now under a new coaching staff, because he simply didn’t look like he belonged on the field. And if you had asked me a month ago if there was any future in Carolina with this guy under center, I wouldn’t have given you much of an angle where I could see this even in a backup capacity. However, since struggling in his return as the starter thanks to a hand injury by Andy Dalton, who had previously replaced him – and expectedly so, going up against an elite Broncos defense – he’s looked like a different guy. In terms of the two numbers I brought up, he ranked 19th and 24th respectively in those categories over that (admittedly short) two-week stretch, playing with a lot more confidence, despite the team having traded away their number one receiver Diontae Johnson and suffered key injuries at center and left tackle.
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https://reddit.com/link/1gwfray/video/7puu88c7782e1/player
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For as poor as all those numbers I mentioned are, the most shocking one for me going through the Pro Football Focus database was Bryce’s passer rating off play-action – 27.5. The next-closest guy sits at 73.3. I’m not totally sure what to do with that number, because I could make a solid argument that this is more of an indictment on the coaching staff, not creating easy opportunities off bootlegs or affecting second-level defenders with the run-fake design. With Chuba Hubbard having the best two-game stretch of his career on the ground most recently, you did see the quarterback have a lot more success in that regard, especially when moving the launch-point for him, since he is a very easy thrower on the move. A big reason he struggled in the pure dropback game as a rookie was the simplicity of their route patterns and lack of separators among his receiving corp, relying on 33-year-old Adam Thielen as his go-to target at the time. Defenses would call a heavy rate of man-coverage and even when they did switch to zone, they weren’t structurally challenged. That was amplified by poor pocket integrity, making it even tougher for a guy at Young’s height.
While I wouldn’t call the 2024 Panthers particularly creative in that regard under Dave Canales, the pass-protection early on especially was significantly better. I thought watching the first two weeks, he felt pressure that wasn’t there and bailed on clean pockets only to get tracked down by bigger, faster athletes. While that’s more apparent in the NFL, Bryce’s biggest strength has always been navigating that condensed space and letting his play-making gene shine – and we’ve seen a little more of that recently. Ironically enough, they’re about to get Thielen back from injury now, with a few rookies having stepped up recently. Beating the Saints and Giants in consecutive weeks, the second-year QB has earned the right to finish out the season and make a case for himself to still be the long-term solution in Carolina. To do so, he’ll have to continue to showcase the skills that got people to buy into his profile originally – being efficient on timing- and leverage-based decisions, great touch on layered throws, protecting the football and bringing a spark of magic out of structure.
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Confidence level: Hopeful to become an average starter
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C.J. Stroud, Texans
16-10 record as starter; 63.7% completion rate, 259.1 passing yards per game, 35 TDs vs. 12 INTs, 13.1 rushing yards per game, 3 rushing TDs, 7 fumbles lost
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It feels almost misplaced to include Stroud in this discussion since there are definitive question marks with all other second-year guys and we’re still figuring out how to contextualize the early returns for the rookie class, considering he just put together one of the best Offensive Rookie of the Year seasons in league history. He broke several individual records, led his team to double-digit wins and a division title after just having him picked second overall the previous draft, torched an elite Browns defense in a playoff win and never really actually like someone in year one. Yet, while we’ll certainly discuss some of the deterring factors, we do have to acknowledge that he has taken at least a slight step backwards coming off his impressive debut campaign. Stroud hasn’t really been a darling of the advanced metrics like EPA per play and dropback success rate. He ranked 13th and 15th (0.124) in those categories (47.3%) in his rookie season. That’s in part because they were such a play-action heavy attack to balance their rushing tendencies on early downs, which don’t lend itself to the greatest efficiency, along with having a receiving corp without a whole lot of yards after catch “juice” beyond Nico Collins.
However, he’s sunk further in those categories this year, down to 23rd in EPA per play (0.040) and 29th in dropback success rate (43.2%). A big reason for that has been the four-week absence of his number one receiver, but more importantly those five guys up front losing their individual battles consistently. Only Jacoby Brissett and Deshaun Watson – who are no longer starting due to different reasons – have been pressured at a higher rate this season (27.8%). Now you pair that with the absence of easy buttons for this attack, where their OC Bobby Slowik provides designs that take pressure off the O-line and quarterback to get into as many true dropback settings and suddenly you’re staring at the second-most yards to go on third downs (8.2).
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https://reddit.com/link/1gwfray/video/2r445doc782e1/player
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Barely any quarterback would be able to succeed at a high level with those kinds of circumstances, but the difference for C.J. in particular is that he didn’t allow the issues around him to compound his negative plays and bad decisions. Too often we’ve seen him try to fit the ball into tight windows late in the play-clock, particularly over the middle of the field, and then we saw miss a lay-up touchdown a couple of weeks ago at Detroit, where he underthrew a ball that should’ve come out earlier to a wide-open Tank Dell. He was converting on those crucial down-and-distances I mentioned at an obscenely high rate for the first couple of weeks, but the law of average would tell you that’s not sustainable. Now having Nico back in the lineup should help them make life easier on themselves as a big-bodied YAC specialist on early downs and then the guy Stroud would look towards in big moments thanks to his contested-catch skills.
Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are the only names ahead of Houston’s franchise guy in terms of “big-time throws” (18). In contrast, he’s also among the top-ten in most “turnover-worthy plays” (12) compared to 17 all of last season. That’s on the second-most dropbacks overall, which relativize both ends, for some context, but the point still stands. This is generally an extremely cerebral pocket passer delivering with pin-point accuracy, who can also turn into a big-game hunter when the looks you’re presenting to him encourage that kind of behavior. He’s allowed the rush to speed up his internal clock more than in his rookie campaign, but where he really blew me away was his pocket play-making, where he’d pedal away from pressure to give himself that extra beat or alter arm slots almost like a golfer using the right clubs, as well as creating secondary plays out of structure. Looking at the previously mentioned BTT and TWP rates, he’s 25th or worse in both on dropbacks below 2.5 seconds and top-ten in both on those above that mark.
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Confidence level: Confident he can be a second-tier guy
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Anthony Richardson, Colts
6-5 record as starter; 52.2% completion rate, 164.3 passing yards per game, 8 TDs vs. 8 INTs, 37.3 rushing yards per game, 7 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles lost
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Among the four names in their second season, Richardson has easily logged the fewest snaps at the NFL and collegiate level. He’s only started 11 games for the Colts and he didn’t even play a full half in three of those. That’s after being first-string a total of 13 times and logging less than 500 dropbacks overall across three years at Florida before leaving as a redshirt sophomore. I’ve brought up the “raw vs. inexperienced” debate on several occasions by now, but bought into the upside and thought he was firmly part of trio at the top with the two guys above him here in that 2023 class. As a rookie, consistency overall was certainly not what defined his play, but rather the flashes he showed as a dual-threat weapon. Richardson basically accounted for 238 total yards per game and seven combined touchdowns compared to only two turnovers, if you calculate by halves played. An injury to his throwing shoulder cut that entrance to the pro level short just a half in, but I once again got excited what he could do with a Colts roster that had just come one poor throw by his backup short of hosting a playoff game, and I highlighted him as a young breakout candidate.
Unfortunately, the issues in terms of accuracy and maturity late in the play-clock didn’t look to be ironed out. Six games in, including missing two starts with a banged-up ankle, he ranked 28th in EPA per play and 34th in dropback success rate (40.2%) among quarterbacks with 150+ dropbacks. Yet, it was that moment in the Texans game, where he tapped out for a play due to “being tired” after just shaking off a defensive tackle ahead of a third-and-forever that probably encouraged the organization to sit him down for a couple of weeks. With Joe Flacco looking anything but the guy who filled in for the second-year QB against the Vikings and Bills, AR-15 was inserted back into the lineup this past week. While it’s certainly a miniscule sample size, his marks in both those categories would rank him first and fourth respectively if you extrapolated his performance against the Jets last week over the course of an entire season. That’s a big reason I decided on this topic for the article, as I wanted to discuss his play a little further.
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https://reddit.com/link/1gwfray/video/re6nap8k782e1/player
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Before we can really analyze Richardson’s play, we need to first lay out what this Indianapolis offense under Shane Steichen wants him to be. The vision for this attack was adding that plus one on the ground with the potential of the quarterback pulling the ball, but also what they could do running concepts like counter bash, where Jonathan Taylor is the initial threat only for AR to keep the other way with a couple of pullers leading the way. You can’t really argue the results and impact he’s had as a component of the rushing attack. With Richardson in the lineup, the Colts average 133.7 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry, compared to 92.0 on 4.1 yards a pop without him. Also, among the 37 quarterbacks in the NFL with 150+ dropbacks this season, only Geno Smith (surprisingly) ranks ahead of AR in yards per scramble (11.0).
As a passer, they’d build off that with a heavy dose of RPOs and deep shots off play-action as a counter-punch. For context on how aggressive Richardson has been with pushing the ball down the field – this season his average pass goes 3.1 yards past the sticks. Only four other quarterbacks even have a net plus in that regard and only other regard sits above 0.5 AYTS. Although a large portion of this goes to the guys on the receiving end of his targets – and this doesn’t take into account the errant throws that would even set up opportunities – Richardson does rank sixth in yards after catch per completion (6.1) despite that massive average depth of target. I’m urged to mention that he ranks dead-last in on-target percentage of his throws (59.7%), where too often he’ll miss an easy slide route or crosser. Still, when he does hit, he doesn’t force them to slow down a whole lot for the catch, and it gets there in a hurry. As a passer, he has the flamethrower attached to his right shoulder to beat converging zone defenders with velocity, but it’s those passes that require touch and where he’d help his targets by taking pace off the ball, that he still hasn’t calibrated correctly. Combining that with being lazy with his aligning his feet and him predetermining some throws has to the third-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (4.6%). However, what he can provide in terms ripping intermediate throws and launching balls 65+ yards through the air off his back-foot has him behind only the duo of Justin Herbert and Josh Allen in terms of big-time throw rate (6.5%). Meanwhile, he has also posted the eighth-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate (15.9%), where he’s literally hitting checkdowns with defenders draped all over him, as one of the most insane passers through contact you’re going to find.
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Confidence level: Hopeful he can be a high-variance starter
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Will Levis, Titans
4-12 record as starter; 61.5% completion rate, 186.1 passing yards per game, 16 TDs vs. 12 INTs, 13.9 rushing yards per game, 1 rushing TD, 0 fumbles lost
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Even though he’s the one name picked outside of the first round, I did want to include Levis here as the 33rd overall selection in 2023, because Tennessee tried to move back up to make into day one for him and they treated this past offseason as if they intended on setting him up about as well as possible to make a case for himself to be the long-term solution. This was pretty clearly the worst offensive line in the league last season, shuffling the pieces around constantly and never finding any consistency. So new head coach Brian Callahan brought over his dad Bill as a revered coach at the position, along with them signing center Lloyd Cushenberry to a substantial four-year contract, and drafting Alabama’s J.C. Latham seventh overall as their left tackle of the future. They also won a lengthy bidding war for wide receiver Calvin Ridley, taking him off the hands of the division-rival Jaguars.
Things haven’t quite worked out unfortunately, as they’re only won two of their first ten games and their young quarterback has made some of the most bone-headed plays you’re going to find in crucial moments, going through anywhere between some nicks and bruins to a soft benching. By no means has he been the lone culprit in Tennessee’s demise and they’ve been a lot more competitive than the win-loss column might indicate. Taking out two games with Mason Rudolph against the Bills and Lions, Tennessee has been within one position through 40 minutes in all other eight contests. However, looking at the subject at hand more specifically – among the 37 quarterbacks with 150+ dropbacks so far this season, Levis ranks 35th in both EPA per play and dropback success rate (39.0%), ahead of only Bryce Young and Deshaun Watson. Pro Football Focus also has him dead-last in passing grade with some distance to the rest of the pack (50.7). While he was already in the bottom third league-wide as a rookie, those marks are markedly worse now under better circumstances, even if Cushenberry went on IR just before the quarterback’s three-game absence.
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https://reddit.com/link/1gwfray/video/ssih7o8p782e1/player
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What has made me scratch my head about the offense Brian Callahan has run with Will Levis at the helm is how often he’s been subjected to straight dropbacks. The Titans head coach ran a lot of under-center play-action with Jake Browning as the OC in Cincinnati once he jumped in for Joe Burrow and they used a 36% rate of faking the run during this preseason. Yet, even if you wanted to have a discussion about how rushing success is tied to the opportunities it creates off that, seeing Levis be tied for 21st in his rate of play-action dropbacks is confusing. So for as bad as the underlying numbers have been, I do want to give Levis credit for being significantly when being allowed to utilize run-fakes (71.6 PFF passing grade), where you eliminate the need to work deeper into progression and potential for catastrophe, trying to still get the ball to his targets late. That’s really what has defined him in the eye of the public, committing game-changing turnovers as a result of missing maturity, as he tries to flip the ball to someone as he’s already getting tripped up for example. Yet, spreading out the formation and asking him to read the full field, even if the ball is supposed to come out quickly has never been how I expected the guy at the helm to succeed.
Nonetheless, I do believe we have to evaluate what he’s doing on an every-down basis, where there are still tangible pieces to it that are positive. Obviously, Levis has one of the strongest arms of anybody in the sport. We saw how that can manifest itself this previous week against the Vikings, where he hit a 98-yard touchdown on a double-move out of his own end-zone, then later had a long touchdown on a post route called back due to an illegal formation, only to hit the same throw to the opposite side of the field for a chunk-gain on the third-and-long re-do. I think he can bring a lot to an offense with those vertical shots. He just needs to realize that these NFL safeties can actually play the ball in the air, even if he forces them to turn and run, where he needs to move the guy in the post with his eyes a little bit or forces him to stay up the seams in split-field looks. There’s a similarity to Anthony Richardson in terms of being too much of a power-thrower all the time when that’s not required, with his bulky build. However, he doesn’t need a whole lot of space to step into combined with a pretty compact release. So I understand the idea of taking stuff of his plate mentally and help out the O-line with quick-rhythm spacing-based concepts, but I’d rather work with Levis on getting the ball out without an extra hitch and try to buy time for him to attack downfield with heavy play-action out of condensed formations. He’s been pressured at the second-highest rate among current starters (26.5%), behind only C.J. Stroud, as previously mentioned. Having said that, I do have to note that he’s contributed to those actually resulting in negative plays, registering the worst pressure-to-sack conversion rate (30.7%). His toughness has never been in question and while you’d advise him to be smarter in that regard, you legitimately see Levis lower his pads on linebackers even as part of the designed run game occasionally. I believe you let the rest of the year play out and you really like someone, you end up drafting him in the top-ten to open a QB competition.
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Confidence level: Confident he can be a high-end backup
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Caleb Williams, Bears
4-6 record as starter; 61.8% completion rate, 201.6 passing yards per game, 9 TDs vs. 5 INTs, 30.6 rushing yards per game, 0 rushing TDs, 2 fumbles lost
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We’re moving on to this year’s rookie class, where we saw a record six(!) quarterbacks selected within the first 12 picks. There was never really any doubt about whose name would be on that card the Bears would ultimately hand in first at the end of April, with Williams having a borderline lock since he finished up his 2023 Heisman trophy campaign at USC. Even though the Trojans fell off dramatically on a national scale, with a lesser supporting cast around Caleb, any negative discussion was largely based on largely absurd character claims, which aren’t really worthy digging further into. Be that as it may, it has been anything but smooth sailing for what many claimed to be a “generational talent” now entering one of the best situations ever for a rookie QB.
Following a couple of putrid offensive showings, of which they won the first one thanks to special teams and one of those game-changing defensive touchdowns off the hands of the previously discussed Will Levis, the offense started to click into gear and the Bears entered their bye week with a 4-2 record. Since then, they’ve now lost four straight, including a couple of heart-breaking last-second losses with the Hail Mary against them in Washington and just last week, the blocked field goal against their archrival Packers. When you look at Caleb’s statistical profile, it’s been a rollercoaster looking at where he’s finished each week in EPA per play – 32nd, 30th, 22nd, 13th, 3rd, 3rd, 34th, 29th, 28th and 9th. That puts him at 30th overall in that metric. Of course, all passing game components contribute to that measure, which we have to overthink how we characterized those coming into the season. Caleb’s taken a league-high 41 sacks already, for as much responsibility as they’re heaped on him already in terms of pre-snap operation, he’s been provided very little in terms of favorable play-sequencing by recently fired OC Shane Waldron and as good as that WR trio looked on paper – D.J. Moore has allowed his frustrations to take away from his game, Keenan Allen at this point is a 230-pound pure slot receiver with poor separation metrics and first-round pick Rome Odunze simply hasn’t been in for enough two-WR sets.
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https://reddit.com/link/1gwfray/video/bymyapzu782e1/player
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The coaching in Chicago has been under the microscope all season long pretty much, most publicly in terms of how they’ve handled their personnel, but consistently on the offensive side of the ball. Waldron has called up some of the most confusing red-zone sequences across the NFL and their run-game designs were lacking real purposes in how they could attack defensive fronts. More importantly for this conversation, I never felt like they came into games with comprehensive protection plans, when they did move the launch-point for the quarterback, there seemed to be no purpose in terms of concept paired with it, and even in terms of teaching, you’d see receivers drift upfield when breaking out to the sideline or routes be snapped off short of the sticks on third downs. For someone who bedazzled college football fans with his insane play-making skills, you’d probably be shocked to realize Caleb ranks 32nd among 36 qualifiers in terms of big-time throw percentage (2.8%) and dead-last in terms of PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ air yards (34.6). That’s where I will give Waldron some credit, as they started limit the amount of deep shots outside the numbers, where the rookie QB really struggled (7-of-35 for 229 yards and one TD vs. four INTs), and focusing more on attacking on attacking that window 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage, between the numbers, where Caleb has been most effective if you map it out (passer rating of 128.8). With that being said, their offensive turnaround during that three-game winning streak was aided by facing the defenses of the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars, who all currently rank 26th or lower in dropback success rate.
By no means am I taking all the blame off Caleb, who simply hasn’t been nearly as accurate as he was in college. Only Anthony Richardson has a lower rate of his passes deemed “on target” (61.8%) so far, while I already referenced the issues in terms of placement deep and outside. The other are where he’s made matters significantly worse is Will Levis being the lone QB who has posted a higher pressure-to-sack conversion rate (29.3%). That’s a lot more in line with what he did in his final season at USC, where he was operating behind a horrendous offensive line and with limited answers for the blitz based on scheme. What we saw this past Sunday against the Packers however was a quarterback who operated so much more efficiently and saw the field way better. He cut down his snap-to-throw time from a season-average of basically exactly three to 2.01 seconds. He has excelled in the quick game all season long pretty much and his completion percentage drops off dramatically when you look at a time-to-throw below 2.5 seconds (72.5%) compared to above that mark (51.8%). Even though changes to that coaching staff are on the horizon, the early signs could mean that we saw more success on the ground and a bootleg game to complement that. I love what Caleb can do on those, because his ability to teleport the ball from his hand to the target whilst running outside is up there with anybody in the sport. And if he doesn’t like what he’s seeing, he’s already contributed the fifth-most yards off scrambles per game among the position (22.6 yards), with a missed-tackles-forced per attempt mark up there with some of the best running backs (24.5%).
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Confidence level: Confident he can become a top-ten starter
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Jayden Daniels, Commanders
7-4 record as starter; 68.7% completion rate, 212.5 passing yards per game, 10 TDs vs. 3 INTs, 43.8 rushing yards per game, 4 rushing TDs, 7 fumbles lost
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As was the case a year ago with C.J. Stroud, this year’s second overall pick is once again the heavy favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Daniels had one of the most interesting draft profiles you’re going to find, spending three years at Arizona State with no real NFL prospects before a solid campaign at LSU and then putting together one of the all-time great statistical seasons with the Tigers, where he was responsible for 50 total touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, along with leading the nation in yards per pass and rush attempt. Nevertheless, there were distinct concerns about the late spike in his development curve as part of a loaded offense, the areas of the field he generally attacked, how he handled pressure and also just being extremely skinny paired with the car-crash collisions you’d see him be part of every week.
Through ten games plus exit following one drive against the Panthers, I’m not sure if he’s wiped away all those question marks, but he’s absolutely ascended to a level where what he CAN do has really challenged pro defenses. He’s slipped a little bit over these past two weeks, but for the season, Jayden still ranks fifth overall in EPA per play behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jared Goff and now also Tua Tagovailoa. Beyond that, he has clearly elevated the pieces around him, which paired with better defensive know-how and teaching under first-year head coach Dann Quinn, has powered the Commanders to a 7-4 record. An offensive line that was largely deemed as a bottom-tier group across the league has definitively been a plus unit so far. Among all starting quarterbacks, Daniels has been pressured at the sixth-lowest rate (16.8%) despite an average time-to-throw of 2.96 seconds. They also rank fifth in rushing EPA (0.022) and success rate on the ground (44.7%), in large because of the dimension their dynamic dual-threat quarterback presents.
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Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury deserves his flowers at this point for how he’s simplified the game for the rookie running the show under him. Yahoo’s Nate Tice wrote an excellent article on how Washington operates, in which he mentioned that they were running no-huddle on 61.3% of snaps heading into this past Thursday Night, which is in a tier of its own compared to the rest of the league, and that they were calling a run or sort of play-action on 65.3%. Jayden has registered the most play-action dropbacks (119) and he’s thrown the third-most screens so far (54). What I really like is that despite being in a lot of open formations, they do show great variety in terms of run play concepts, while providing the quarterback with a heavy-dose of RPOs, where he’s only asked to read one key, and tied to their fast-paced attack, the dropback menu is fairly limited. That’s not supposed to be taking anything away from Daniels, who has made very firm snap-shot decisions on those and put the ball on the money, ranking fourth in percentage of on-target passes (80.6%). At the same time, he’s remained deadly on the shots he does take outside the numbers on 20+ air yards (9-of-21 for 359 yards and three TDs vs. no INTs), and he’s earned the fifth in PFF passing grade (82.1). We'll have to see if this team can avoid the infamous Kliff drop-off over the second half of seasons.
To me the most shocking developments for the second overall pick has been what he’s done as a passer on the intermediate level, earning the highest PFF grade so far (96.2) and specifically between the numbers he’s gone 23-of-33 for 429 yards and one TD with no picks. That’s the area of the field that you rarely ever saw him attack throughout his collegiate career. Meanwhile, he’s dead-on average in terms of throws of 20+ yards (31 attempts), as they’ve called those shot plays up more situationally rather than within the rhythm of what has been an efficient, high-tempo approach. Now, for as composed as he’s looked for most of the year, we did see games slip out of his control a little bit recently in their losses to the Steelers and Eagles, who forced them into more defined dropback settings and were able to heat him up. My big issue with his tape even as he was breaking NCAA records was that his eyes would drop and that he’d take off whenever he felt pressured – and it worked most of the time, to be fair – rather than creating as a passer out of structure. That’s an area of his game that we haven’t really seen at the pro level, although he has shown the willingness to stand in and launch the ball downfield in those key spots, when he did see one-on-one coverage on the outside, with Terry McLaurin especially. Of course, there’s also no denying the impact he’s had on that rushing attack and how insanely tough he’s been to get to the ground when winning the corner on a defense or taking off up through a seam within the pass-rush lanes. He’s scrambled more than any other quarterback (46 times) and nearly clears the rest of the position by 100 yards that he’s gained off those (358 yards).
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Confidence level: Confident he can be an average starter plus
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Drake Maye, Patriots
2-4 record as starter; 66.8% completion rate, 176.6 passing yards per game, 9 TDs vs. 6 INTs, 37.1 rushing yards per game, 1 rushing TD, 3 fumbles lost
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This is the guy who I believed was in that tier at the top of the draft alongside Caleb Williams, with a significant drop-off to the rest of the class, actually got selected third by the Patriots. I did understand the thinking by Washington to bring in a guy with more experience and who’d immediately boost a fanbase desperate for a spark after multiple years of irrelevance, but I certainly disagreed with the evaluation of having Daniels over Maye on their board. New England took a slower approach with bringing along their rookie signal-caller, sitting him behind Jacoby Brissett. We can argue when the right time to insert him in place of the veteran was, but concerns about protection and pass-catching options whilst they see what this offensive infrastructure could look, were absolutely reasonable. He’s now had the chance to start the last six games, winning two of those and giving this franchise a lot of reason for optimism.
In order to set the table here a little bit – prior to the quarterback switch, Jacoby Brissett had been pressured at what remains the highest rate dropbacks (33.3%) and they were a bottom-ten offense by pretty much any metric you want to look at. Those marks are all slightly up, but to me this is more about some of the previous issues Drake has masked since taking over. Individually, he ranks 24th in EPA per play, but right in the middle of the pack at 16th in dropback success rate (48.0%). I’d say the offensive line has stepped up a little bit since the insertion of the rookie, but he’s also been solid at evading potential sacks. While the time spent inside the pocket is nearly identical between the two Pats QBs, they’ve taken more shots off play-action to minimize pressure on the O-line and the threat Maye presents as a runner himself when they do drop back has forced defense to deploy a spy rather than have the resources to send additional rushers. The rookie has been pressure at just over 20% of snaps, which is better than average. Drake has also been able to get more out of limited receiving options and overcome some drive-killing drops or non-catches in contested situations, in particular by the guy this organizations drafted a round later in Ja’Lynn Polk.
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Now, where the rookie has certainly been more fun to watch is the aggressiveness he plays the position with. In both years as the full-time starter at North Carolina, he led the country in what Pro Football Focus labels as “big-time throws”, which is defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”. He’s more than willing to fit passes in-between zone defenders, particularly when he can pepper his tight-ends on hook or spot routes, and even while relying on the services of Kayshon Boutte as his primary deep threat, he’ll happily challenge middle-of-the-field open structures or isolated coverage defenders. Although offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt hasn’t just put him in the shotgun and asked him to pick apart defenses, with more quick-game and spacing-based concepts, you do see those tendencies continue to be prevalent. Right now, Drake is just 0.1 percent off the mark that would tie him for tenth in big-time throw rate (4.4%). With that of course come drawbacks, that subject him to a higher potential for dangerous throws. His turnover-worthy-play rate (5.2%) right now is 0.5% higher than any other quarterback with 150+ dropbacks. While there supposedly was a miscommunication on the most recent interception he threw, the Patriots have now lost games to the Titans and Rams with the ball in his hands on what could’ve been a game-winning drive. He deserves plenty of credit for even putting his team in those situations, but managing contests and not simply assuming that opportunities are available based on the pre-snap picture are things he has to work on, as he learns about what he can get away with at this level.
While I do believe there are some kinks that need to be ironed out for more consistent accuracy, by the numbers provided by pro-football-reference, Maye actually ranks third behind only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith in on-target rate of his passes (80.7%). I’m certainly not denying that there have been some relatively easy misses, but some of the high-end ball-placement, where he’s lofting balls over the heads of trailing defenders on sail routes or drops a slot fade perfectly into the bucket, more than evens those out. His footwork was questioned on multiple occasions during the pre-draft process and we’ll have to see how well he can sync that to the concept when it’s not as much “one-skip, ball out” from the shotgun or deep play-action concepts, but the early returns are fairly promising. And then of course we have to bring up what this guy has done utilizing his legs as a weapon. In my write-up on the quarterbacks for the 2024 draft class, I mentioned that Maye had delivered more third- and fourth-down conversions than any other FBS quarterback as a runner as a junior. Despite only playing in about five-and-a-half-games so far, Maye has scrambled 26 times already (ninth-most) and he’s been incredible productive on those, averaging exactly a first down every time he takes off. We saw the insane play-extension ability on the game-tying touchdown against Tennessee. So I’m very optimistic that his physical traits can buy him enough time for the mental components to come along, since he did operate a fairly simplistic offensive scheme at UNC.
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Confidence level: Hopeful he can become an above-average starter
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Bo Nix, Broncos
6-5 record as starter; 65.5% completion rate, 206.8 passing yards per game, 14 TDs vs. 6 INTs, 26.8 rushing yards per game, 4 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles lost
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If Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were the duo I clearly labelled as franchise guys worthy of going first and overall this past April, Bo Nix is who I was willing to put my stamp on as someone who could at least be a viable starter for an extended period at the pro level. I had back-to-back on my big board with Jayden Daniels and although I had questioned about how coming from this simplistic Oregon offense might translate, there were elements to his game I believed were more suited for how the game is played in the NFL than the Heisman trophy winner. In fact, they had very similar timelines, as Bo was never really considered to have a legit future beyond the collegiate ranks across his three years at Auburn, but turned into one of the most efficient passers in the country over his two years with the Ducks. As a redshirt senior, he set a new FBS record with a 77.4% completion rate and bested Daniels with one extra touchdown (51) and one fewer pick (three).
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Rest of the analysis can be found here!
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Confidence level: Confident he can be an average starter
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