It's 2025, and companies are still pretending like kpop is in its mega growth phase

There are too many girl groups. Yes, this post is mainly about girl groups. Right now, we are at a time in kpop where 3rd gen mega groups like TWICE and BP are still actively promoting, 4th gen groups like IVE, Aespa, and New Jeans are still at the top of the industry, and 5th gen groups still haven't found the mega success of the previous gens. Despite this, the big and mid sized companies are still trying to debut a large number of new GG's.

Just in 2025 alone, the almost confirmed GG's slated to debut are a new gg from SM, a new GG from Cube, two new GG's from HYBE, and a new GG from Highup. In the works are a new Koz gg, and a potentially new GG from Ador. That's at least 5 new GG debuts from reputable companies.

This is insane.

In 2024, we saw a healthy and normal shrink in kpop. From 2023 to 2024, the kpop industry saw a 20 percent decrease in album sales. This is a completely normal correction. We had a big boom in kpop thanks to the rise of BP and BTS, and now it's time to take a breather. However, the industry is still trying to chase that growth; which is most likely not there anymore. In the past 3 years, HYBE has debuted 4 GG's. With the 2 groups slated to debut this year, that's 6 GG debuts in a span of 3 years. LSF is less than 3 years old, but Source wants to debut a new GG... Companies like JYP are running a lineup of 5 active groups, and SM and Cube are going to have 3 generations of active girl groups. YG and TBL decided to cannibalize themselves for some reason by debuting two similar GGs in the same year. This is insane and not sustainable for everyone.

The sad reality is that unless the comebacks of BP and BTS usher in a new era of growth in kpop, kpop will likely either shrink in 2025 or have a small amount of growth. There's also a small chance that a new BTS or BP emerges from the one of the newer or existing that we're seeing, which may usher in a new era of growth. However, the chances for that are too slim.

The reality is that the existing pool of Kpop fans don't have enough time or money to focus on all these girl groups. We saw what happened in 2024. Most of the big GG's saw a big drop in album sales. The new and upcoming groups like Babymonster, Illit, QWER, Izna, Kiss of Life saw some success, but not mega success, and other groups just fell flat on their face.

The kpop pie isn't big enough for everyone. Not everybody can win. With a shrinking pie, everyone is fighting for a piece. This means that certain groups will be pushed out, while some will have to be forgotten or fail. It's an inevitability at this point.