Sell These Players Now! Week 9 Full PPR:
I wanted to test out separate win-now (desperate teams that need to put up points) vs win-later (playoff locks or near-locks) sections. Do you like this or think it should just be one long "who to target" section? Hope you enjoy!
Najee Harris: Najee has produced pretty consistently, albeit not eye-popping numbers in a full-PPR format, for 3 consecutive weeks. He just came off a 4-target game. Russell Wilson seems to have heightened the potential of this offense and is less likely to take rushing TD’s away from Najee than Fields. Najee to the moon, right? Not so fast. This season, with Warren active, Najee has peaked at a 59% snap share. His 3 best performances have come against teams that the Steelers have dominated from start to finish in the Jets, Giants, and Raiders, 2 of which are bottom half RB defenses for points against. While Russ has looked better than expected, you have to expect some regression that this offense will come back to Earth shortly against more capable opponents. Between weeks 11-17, Najee faces only ONE run defense that is not bottom 7 in points allowed to the RB position. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of the No. 5 (PHI), No. 7 (BAL), and No. 1 (KC) ranked defenses against fantasy RBs. Finally, Cordarrelle Patterson will look to come back and be a change-up option that will cut into Najee’s snaps. Note: Najee is a unique sell candidate in that I think teams that are in win-now mode AND teams who are looking to the fantasy playoffs could both benefit from sending him off now before his value craters, given he is currently on bye.
Win-Now Move: If looking for current fantasy relevance, I would love to see if a Jaylen Waddle owner is discouraged by his relative lack of production despite Tua’s return and make an offer there. If you are extremely desperate for current points, I would also look into Kareem Hunt with a depth piece thrown in and hold out a prayer that Pacheco doesn’t ramp up until much later in the season, but I would only recommend this route for winless or other very desperate teams.
Win-Later Move: I would love to see how a Mike Evans owner feels about a swap if they are desperate at RB or a flex spot and like Najee’s recent emergence. Could also throw in another depth piece to sweeten the deal. I think Mike Evans has top 12 potential by season’s end given the injury to Godwin and the apparent lack of movement on the trade front for the Bucs, but there is an air of uncertainty about how an older player like him recovers from a hamstring injury. If looking for an upgrade at RB, consider upgrading to JK Dobbins who played a season-high 82% of snaps against the Saints. If Kimani Vidal is available on the waivers, I would add him as insurance given Dobbins’ injury history. You might have to also add a low-end flex option like Courtland Sutton but Dobbins can be a league-winner with a playoff schedule that includes two highly favorable matchups in TB and NE.
Tank Bigsby (JAX): This especially is a sell if you are in win-now mode. Tank has had just 2 games with greater than 10.6 PPR points this year: IND, a game that Jacksonville won and scored 37, and NE, a game that Jacksonville won and scored 32. Excluding these outlier performances, Jacksonville has scored a woeful 17.17 points per contest. I would not be thrilled to start even a feature back in this offense, particularly one who has 5 targets on the season in a PPR format. His next 4 weeks are: PHI (10th least points against PPR RBs), MIN(1st), DET(3rd), BYE. Throw in Etienne, their highest paid RB who’s coming back from injury, and D’Ernest Johnson having a role and you’re looking at rostering a committee RB in what will potentially be the worst offense in the NFL over that stretch, with any decent potential matchups for Tank coming after most league trade deadlines. You need to move off of him now before he has absolutely 0 value and you’re forced to move him to waivers.
Win-Now Move: If I could pivot to high-upside WRs like Josh Downs, Ladd McConkey, or Tank Dell I would do so in a heartbeat, thought you league-mates might be too high on this group given recent news for Downs and Tank or a great performance for Ladd. If you could attach Bigsby to a TE like Kyle Pitts and upgrade to the tier of Njoku, Engram, or even Bowers for someone who needs RB depth, I would like this as well.
Win-Later Move: The high-upside WRs mentioned above could also be perfect for your fantasy playoffs depending on your depth and league settings. If you can pivot off Bigsby for low-floor high-ceiling players like Rome Odunze or even Tyler Allgeier with a depth piece, I would be intrigued. Finally, Tyrone Tracy Jr. could be a great buy even off of his tremendous Monday night performance if he is expected to miss a week or two with a concussion. Finally, attaching Tank as a sweetener for an upgrade at QB or TE could be another possibility if your league-mate is hoping to move possibly Jordan Love given his injury concern and you have a lower-end QB in the streaming range.
De’Andre Swift(CHI): Swift has been absolutely wonderful this season since Week 4, and if you bought low on him earlier in the year you should feel amazing about the return. The next two weeks he plays ARI and NE, two perfect matchups which you may want to wait on in order to sell him, so he will probably make this list the next two weeks also. Some people will be upset about Roschon Johnson’s red zone usage, and that’s certainly a factor, but Swift still out touches him 16-to-8 in the red zone so it does not concern me to an extreme degree. My larger concern is his stretch between weeks 12-17, which feature only one non-top-half matchup in Week 17 against SEA, and FOUR top 3 matchups, two of which coming in the fantasy playoffs (@MIN, DET). I would sell Swift anytime between now and week 11, when he plays GB, before his tough stretch.
Win-Now Moves: If you absolutely need wins over these next two weeks, I would actually hold Swift and see if you can sell in week 11, unless someone in your league significantly over-values him and is willing to give you somebody like Aaron Jones or Olave, though I’d doubt that strongly.
Win-Later Moves: Consider seeing if Swift can be part of a 2-for-1 package for Brian Thomas Jr. if your league-mate is concerned about the Jags offense or his injury status moving forward. James Conner is another possibility given his amazing playoff schedule. If you were able to grab a massive QB upgrade plus a depth RB for Swift, moving yourself to that top tier of players like Hurts, Allen, Daniels, or Lamar it could be worth exploring, particularly so dependent on your league settings.