First Game and the lies about debt
So there's one little problem that has not been resolved in the story yet and that I think is very importante in this story, and that is the liar of the first game.
Hopefully this isn't forgotten by the author, because it's the main plot point of the first half of the manga, that still didn't get a proper conclusion.
Before anything else, let's do a bit o math (i know, boring af). We begin with :
>Total debt: 20 M
>Individual debt: 4 M each
From these values, we move to the first game.
End of first game:
>Shibe (Announced): 3.6 M
>Shibe (Real): 1.6 M (not confirmed)
>Shiho (Announced): 7.6 M
>Shiho (Real): ???
>Tenji (Announced): 3.6 M
>Tenji (Real): 1.6 M
>Yuuichi: 3.6 M
>Kokorogi: 3.6 M
Total debt (Announced): 18 M
Before proceeding to the second game, there's a few things to point:
1- Kokorogi did not get a bonus on the first game. Her question was fixed and doesn't have the debt halving condition. Not to mention that, in the end, it the coin went into "yes" and for her to lose debt, the coin would have to go to "no". It's impossible for her to be the liar here
2- Kokorogi was not the one saying no. Why would she make it a situation where she may get dumped with all the debt? Not to mention that she would be helping the others by reducing their debts.
3- Shibe lied about his debt. He admits it later, but his debt is not confirmed. We've never had confirmation of his debt, but, assuming he wasn't lying the second time, his debt at the end of the first game was 1.6 M
4- Shiho claims that her debt was doubled from her "speaking" (this is never confirmed by the staff. Not to mention she never spoke in the first place).
5- Shiho claims that there was no debt halving condition in her card (once again, the staff never mentions any of it. They only talk about Kokorogi's card being diferent from everyone else's).
6 - The lowest possible debt by the end of the first game was 1.6 M (4M/2 = 2 M; 2 M - 0.4 M = 1.6M).
With this in mind, we can move to the second game.
End of game the second game
>Shibe (Announced): 3.6 M - 400 000 - 1 M = 2.2 M
>Shibe (Real): 1.6 M - 400 000 - 1 M = 0.2 M (not confirmed)
>Shiho (Announced): 7.6 M - 400 000 - 1 M = 6.2 M
>Shiho (Real): ???
>Tenji (Real): 2.1 M
>Yuuichi: 4.1 M
>Kokorogi: 3.6 M - 400 000 - 1M = 2.2 M
Total (Announced): 18.8 M
Total (Real): 10.8 M
There's a few things we can say here.
Shibe said he had lied in the first game. That he had gotten the debt halving condition and that his debt was reduced by half. If we take that into account, then his debts would be:
>Shibe (End of first game): 1.6 M
Shibe (End of second game): 0.2 M
This brings the total debt to 16.8 M.
As for wether Shibe was telling the truth the second time, we can't be sure, however, we can be certain of 1 thing. Based on the flows of Money, Shibe's debt can only have been either 2.2 M or 0.2 M. There's no other option based on how the 2 games went. Of this we can be certain.
However, we're still left with a problem. There's 6 M of debt that is not accounted for.
Most people claim that it was Kokorogi who got the money in the first game because of what Shiho told Kei.
Well, ignoring the fact that we have no way of knowing if Shiho was telling Kei the truth or if she was lying, or the fact that the staff literally told that her card did not have a debt halving condition, like the panel I posted above indicates, Kokorogi being the one responsible for 6 M is mathematically impossible.
Let's assume that she halved her debt in the first game, like most people belive. These would be her values:
>Kokorogi (End of game 1): 1.6 M
>Kokorogi (End of game 2): 0.2 M
In this situation, the total debt would be either 12.8 M or 14.8 M (depending on Shibe's debt being 2.2 M or 0.2 M). Based on the values we got, it was impossible for Kokorogi to be the one responsible for the 4 M that weren't unaccounted for.
For Kokorogi to have been the one responsible for the 4 M missing, her debt would have to be 1.8 M in the positive. Basically, she would not have any debt left and would have 1.8 M extra.
However, based on the values given by the first 2 games it was impossible for her to have those values. The lowest she could get would be 0.2 M.
The same with Shibe. The lowest he could have gotten was 0.2 M
As for Yuuichi and Tenji, they both had their debt confirmed.
So that means that it has to be Shiho that lied about her debt.
Shiho having a debt of 2.2 M would make the math be correct.
0.2 M from Shibe, 2.2 M from Shiho, 2.2 M from Kokorogi, 2.1 M from Tenji and 4.1 M Yuuichi gives us 10.8 M, the correct number.
And, unlike Shibe and Kokorogi, it's possible for her to achieve this value.
Let's assume she did get penalized for speaking. Her debt would go up to 8 M
Then, when it came to her turn, her debt was halved by her card, bringing it down again to 4 M. She would end the game with 3.6 M debt, and, after the second game, it would end up as 2.2 M.
Or, instead, her card really didn't have a debt halving condition. But instead, she lied about get penalized for talking. This would mean that, by the end of the first game she ended with a debt of 3.6 M and by the second it was 2.2 M.
So Shiho either lied about her card not having the halving condition or she lied about getting penalized for talking.
A funny thing to mention is that she only lied about 1 of those things. Because if she lied about both, her debt would be 0.2 M and the total debt would be 8.8 M, which isn't right.
So she lied about only of of the things she said to Yuuichi at the end of the first game. I wonder why that would be the case.
What are your thoughts on this? Why do you think Shiho lied in the first game? And why do you think she didn't come clean later in the story, trying to shift the blame solely onto Kokorogi?