TLDR: Hope Real Madrid and Bayern win their final games, then we won't face them.

On Wednesday, January 29th, 2025, at 8:00 PM, (in Liverpool) teams all across Europe will face each other in one final League Phase clash, causing the table to change dramatically. Here's the aftermath of that.

The Bracket

Lots of people are asking questions on how the knockout phase draw will work, hopefully this helps!

Liverpool is guaranteed to finish in the top 2 places of the league phase, with Barcelona being the only team who can catch up to us. However, the only scenario where we finish 2nd is if we lose away to PSV Eindhoven and Barcelona win at home vs Atalanta.

However, this hardly matters, since 1st and 2nd are separated on the bracket. There are bragging rights in history, though. And a little more money to give to Salah, VVD, and TAA.

All teams who finish in the top 8 will, on top of automatically qualifying for the Round of 16, have the 2nd leg at home. However, a random draw is used to determine who plays the first leg at home in the Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals.

Now, the most important question - who would we face in the Round of 16?

Round Of 16 Opponent

In the knockout phase, there is no country protection, so we can face another English team, assuming the draw works out like that. We can also face opponents we played during the league phase.

The playoffs, R16, QF, and SF rounds will all take place over two legs. The final is one legged.

Since we've already guaranteed ourselves 1st or 2nd, we will face one of the winners of the playoffs between 17th/18th and 15th/16th. Which teams will be in one of those two playoffs will be decided after the League Phase finishes. Which playoff winner we face against will be decided after the playoffs have concluded.

There's 2 different combinations of the pair of playoffs that will be put in the draw to face us:
- 17th vs 15th and 18th vs 16th
- 17th vs 16th and 18th vs 15th

This matters a bit - say Celtic finishes 16th and Dinamo in 17th, while Real Madrid finishes 15th and Bayern Munich in 18th. If the first combination happens, Dinamo/Real and Celtic/Bayern would almost certainly lead to Real and Bayern winning, and Liverpool will have to face one of them, which sucks. However, if the second combination happens, Celtic/Dinamo and Real/Bayern would have one tough team and one "easier" team win the playoffs, giving us a 50/50 chance of getting the "easier" team.

There are lots of teams that can finish between 15th and 18th though, from 5th place Atleti to 24th place Stuttgart. This isn’t a metaphor - we mathematically cannot get Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, or Man City in the Round of 16. Opta's supercomputer seems to think that the most likely teams to finish in these places are Juventus, PSV, Celtic, and Club Brugge.

We can also play with the UCL simulator. Picking most of the favorites to win (Real to beat Brest and Bayern to beat Slovan Bratislava, etc.) show that most of the big teams jump between 9th-14th. If they lose, they finish between 19th-24th. If they draw, however, they'll end up within our range. In most of Opta's simulations, 15th-18th seem to have around 12 to 13 points.

So, if Real and Bayern win their games, they should be beyond that threshold.

League Phase Drama

Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atlético Madrid, and AC Milan are guaranteed top 16, but might fall into the seeded playoffs if results don't go their way. Arsenal would have to have a mountain of things to go wrong though, thanks to their GD. If these teams win, they'll be fine though, and so will Atalanta if they win.

Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, and Brest are all on 13 points, with Leverkusen's extra goal difference separating them into the top 8 right now. It'll be very messy on the final day, and there'll likely only be 1 or 2 spots left for these guys to automatically progress to the Round of 16.

Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Celtic are all on 12 points. They're all safe, but it'll be extremely unlikely that any of them make it into the top 8.

PSV and Club Brugge with 11 points aren't guaranteed into the playoffs yet, but they're in a strong position - don't lose and they're fine.

Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting, and Stuttgart are in a similar position with 10 points - don't lose and it's okay. Funnily enough, PSG and Stuttgart face other.

Shakhtar Donetsk on 7 points, while not being mathematically eliminated, will almost certainly not make it, even if they win.

Man City and Dinamo Zagreb on 8 points have a slim chance to make it, but they'll have to win - a draw isn't enough.

Rival Watch

What games have everything to play for on the final day?

7 out of the 18 games involve a team that's already been mathematically eliminated. Barcelona vs Atalanta and PSV vs Liverpool will be okay watches, but the teams might be rotated. Also, most of the midtable teams have almost no chance of making it to top 8. So, the only games where both sides have something realistic to play for are:

Lille (12th) vs Feyenoord (11th)
VfB Stuttgart (24th) vs Paris Saint-Germain (22nd)
Manchester City (25th) vs Club Brugge (20th)
GNK Dinamo (26th) vs AC Milan (6th)

Now, what game should you hate watch on the final day?
Easy, Man City vs Club Brugge. Go Mignolet!

What other games could be interesting?
Inter Milan vs Monaco
Barcelona vs Atalanta
Juventus vs Benfica
Brest vs Real Madrid

The Draw

The draw for the knockout phase play-offs will be held on 31 January 2025, 11:00 AM for Liverpudlians. The first legs will be played on 11 and 12 February, and the second legs will be played on 18 and 19 February 2025.

The draw for the round of 16 will be held on 21 February 2025. The first legs will be played on 4 and 5 March, and the second legs will be played on 11 and 12 March 2025.

Hopefully I haven't gotten anything wrong, but if I have, please let me know. Hope this helps everyone!