How much can I get off?

I am looking to trade in my car for a black 2022 Lexus nx 250 FWD. I found one an hour away and the MSRP is $33,499 and it has 21k miles. I also found another identical black one at $33,598 at 35k miles. I have also seen a white one at $32,990 with 21k miles but i’d prefer the black one. There’s also others priced the same but with 15k miles, etc.

Based off your experience, realistically how much can I get off of this car? I put it into carfax and its valued at $28.2k so the dealership should have flexibility to move the price around.

Thank you!