2024 Rookie Receiver Yardage Thresholds: Yearend Edition

I'm back with the 2024 Rookie Receiver Yardage Thresholds: Yearend Edition. You can find the 2024 Midseason Edition here, and the 2023 Yearend Edition here.

 

People tend to use the 525 Rule as an indicator for potential future production. However, a combination of Draft Capital and Scrimmage Yd/G is a better indicator of future production than a one-size-fits-all approach. I looked at rookie receivers since 2011 who played a minimum of 10 games, ran at least 100 routes, and had at least 150 total scrimmage yards. This refinement accounts for three things:

  • Receivers with better draft capital should have greater production as rookies
  • Receivers should be recognized for their impact on the running game
  • Receivers shouldn’t be penalized for missing games during the season

 

Please note after review, a few tweaks were made to the yearend thresholds. Below are the yearend thresholds by draft capital that rookie receivers need to meet in order to produce in years 2-3:

  • Round 1: 50 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 2: 40 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 3: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 4-5: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G
  • Round 6+ or UDFA: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G

 

The Data

Below you can find how receivers above and below each threshold produced in year 2 as well as their best finish in years 2-3. I included both Overall finish and PPG finish. Year 2 data includes receivers from 2011-2023. Year 2-3 data includes receivers from 2011-2022.

 

Below is a breakdown of performance by draft capital above and below each threshold:

 

Below is a breakdown of performance for all receivers by Scrimmage Yd/G:

 

Potential Outliers

Round 1-2 receivers that did not meet their yearend threshold but went on to have a Top 20 finish or average 14+ PPG in either years 2-3 typically met one of the following criteria:

  • The rookie was among the top three in team targets, and one of the other top three target leaders on the team was 29 years old or older at the start of September. This includes receivers such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams, and Kendall Wright.
  • Their team ranked in the bottom 10 for passing yards, and no more than one teammate surpassed 720 receiving yards (adjusted to 680 yards for 16 game seasons). This includes receivers such as Marquise Brown, DJ Chark, and Alshon Jeffery.

 

Below is a breakdown for Round 1-2 receivers from 2011-2022:

  • Criteria Met: 6 of 19 (32%) receivers became outliers
  • Criteria Not Met: 1 of 25 (4%) receivers became outliers

 

From 2011-2022, 50 Round 3+ or UDFA receivers didn't meet their threshold. None went on to have a Top 20 finish or average 14+ PPG in either years 2-3, and only 6 went on to have a Top 40 finish or average 10+ PPG. There lacks a typical criteria for later round potential outliers as they have little in common.

 

2024 Rookies

Below are the receivers that met their yearend threshold:

  • Round 1: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, Marvin Harrison Jr
  • Round 2: Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman
  • Round 3: Jalen McMillan
  • Round 4-5: N/A
  • Round 6+ or UDFA: Jalen Coker, Devaughn Vele

 

Below are the receivers that did not meet their yearend threshold:

  • Round 1: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette
  • Round 2: Adonai Mitchell
  • Round 3: Luke McCaffrey
  • Round 4-5: Troy Franklin
  • Round 6+ or UDFA: Jordan Whittington, Malik Washington

 

Below is the Scrimmage Yd/G range for all receivers (in order of yardage):

  • >= 70: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey
  • 60 - 70: N/A
  • 50 - 60: Marvin Harrison Jr
  • 40 - 50: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, Jalen Coker, Ricky Pearsall
  • 30 - 40: Jalen McMillan, Devaughn Vele, Xavier Legette
  • 20 - 30: Jordan Whittington
  • < 20: Adonai Mitchell, Malik Washigton, Troy Franklin, Luke McCaffrey

 

Based on the previously mentioned criteria, below is the outlier potential for Round 1-2 receivers that did not meet their yearend threshold:

  • Potential Outliers: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Xavier Legette
  • Unlikely Outliers: Ricky Pearsall, Adonai Mitchell

 

The following receivers either didn't play a minimum of 10 games, run at least 100 routes, or have at least 150 total scrimmage yards:

  • Round 1: N/A
  • Round 2: Ja'Lynn Polk
  • Round 3: Jermaine Burton, Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson
  • Round 4: Javon Baker, Devontez Walker, Jacob Cowing
  • Round 5: Anthony Gould, Ainias Smith, Jamari Thrash, Bub Means
  • Round 6: Jha'Quan Jackson, Johnny Wilson, Casey Washington, Tejhaun Palmer, Ryan Flournoy
  • Round 7: Brenden Rice, Tahj Washington, Cornelius Johnson
  • UDFA: Mason Tipton, Bryce Oliver, Ramel Keyton, Isaiah Williams, Kameron Johnson

 

Efficiency Metrics

As a final look, below are graphs that indicate whether a receiver met their yearend threshold along with their Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). Receiver names are displayed in black if they met their threshold and in red if they did not meet their threshold.

 

Edit (1/10/2025): Added the list of receivers excluded from the analysis because they either didn't play a minimum of 10 games, run at least 100 routes, or have at least 150 total scrimmage yards.