Revisiting my preseason post on Devon Achane
I’d like to take a look back at the write up I did about Devon Achane before the season. It’s important to have some accountability even among internet randos! Here is my previous post.
TL/DR - Devon Achane: hit the rushing, whiffed on the receiving. I'd say I undersold him overall.
Rights and Wrongs
What I got wrong: Boy, did I miss on the receiving. I figured i was probably low on him there but not this low. I have a few questions that I will address later but I was way off, plain and simple.
What I got right: 2023 was a complete outlier for the Miami Dolphins rushing attack and I didn’t think the run game would crash this far. I thought they would be middle of the pack and not bottom 3rd. The crazy part is defenses have been sitting back to clog up the passing lanes and they still can't run.
2022 - 390 attempts (31st), 1686 yards (26th), 12 tds (27th), 4.3 ypc (19th)
2023 - 456 attempts (15th), 2308 yards (6th) and 27 tds (1st), 5.1 ypc (1st)
2024 - 448 attempts (19th), 1795 yards (21st), 12 tds (23rd), 4.0 ypc (28th)
Devon Achane has been a polarizing player. In my opinion, this is going to continue into next season as well. I know this is fantasy and all we care about is points but from a football perspective, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered when talking about the Miami Dolphins.
My Concerns:
The Dolphins are paying Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the 5th and 7th highest average at WR. They make up almost 23% of the team's total salary. Waddle got extended before the season and was then used the lowest amount in his career. Achane was the leading receiver in catches and touchdowns for a majority of the season. I would imagine that the higher ups would like to see that investment in Hill and Waddle used more.
Maybe someone who has watched/broken down all the games can help me out with this. The only big change to the offense that I have seen in the games I’ve watched is that Tua has the ability to change the play to a quick pass/screen to Achane or Jonnu. I’m guessing this is the case because you see these plays throughout the games that Tua plays and they are almost totally missing from the games that he doesn’t play. I don’t think it’s just a kill call to the 2nd play but it’s a 3rd play that can be called whenever based on offensive alignment and defensive look. This has been great for Achane and Jonnu but this hasn’t been a net positive for the team.
Wrap up:
Achane has had a great season. Overall I’m higher on him than I was before. I think there is a little more room to reach his ceiling. They could definitely improve running the ball and that would presumably open things up more for Hill and Waddle. Maybe that would probably take away some from Achane’s receiving work a little but it could also be made up for if they are able to run more plays because of it.
The current adjustments the Dolphins have made have really hurt Hill and Waddle. The offense was great last year because of Hill and Waddle. The Dolphins were able to get leads with the passing attack and that let the running game go wild. I think that will be the focus this off season and that will hopefully allow Achane to gain back some of his efficiency.
Addendum:
I wrote this before the week 18 games. Good final game rushing from Achane. I think the Tyreek Hill drama is fitting. The WR play is what made the Dolphins electric last season and what opened up the run game. They also paid Hill and Waddle a boat load. The adjustments I mentioned above were great for Achane’s fantasy value but made the Dolphins worse off. The Dolphins will be even worse without Hill BUT that could be huge for Achane’s value