Tips to Improve your Dynasty Roster

1. Exploit KTC and other valuation tools

For those who have never heard of Keep Trade Cut, it is a trade valuation tool that takes data from fantasy players and provides rankings and valuations for every player and draft pick in your dynasty league. KTC can be a helpful resource as it gives players a better understanding of the dynasty market and where player values currently reside. However, a savvy player will avoid KTCs rankings and instead take advantage of mispriced players. KTC is like the stock market, it tries to price in upside, production, age and other factors. But just like real life, there are value players and growth players. Here is an example of how you can exploit KTC values.

Last offseason, CJ Stroud was being valued as the QB3 in dynasty (behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen). Stroud had turned in a top 8 finish as a rookie and there was a lot of optimism for his future. However, there were clear red flags regarding Stroud's production and upside going forward. First, he is a pocket passer with little to no rushing upside (something we consistently see from the elite fantasy producers), if someone is going to consistently finish as the top fantasy quarterback without significant rushing upside, they need to be an elite pocket passer (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady). Second, the Texans had no rushing attack last season, which meant Stroud had an outsized role in the offense. We have seen all his passing metrics dip in 2024, and the Texans have relied heavily on Joe Mixon as the focal point of their offense. Third, Stroud finished as the QB8 in a year where everything broke the Texans way, where was the path for him to finish top 3 moving forward? It would take absurd touchdown production for him to crack that elite fantasy quarterback tier. 

Stroud is a good player, and dynasty managers are probably happy with him on their team (even if he is the QB19 this season), but he was clearly a misprice. So how do you take advantage of a clearly overvalued asset like Stroud was? Look for players on a lower tier, with proven profiles who are being pushed down in the rankings. Buzz Lightyear is a cool toy, yet Andy chose Woody for a reason. Selling Stroud for Justin Herbert (who was valued between QB10 to QB12 this offseason), and a first round pick was a totally viable trade. Look for mispriced players, trade for value and sell the hype.

(Overvalued players as of 12-17-2024): Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, Devon Achane, Tyrone Tracy

(Undervalued players as of 12-17-2024): AJ Brown, D.J Moore, Michael Pittman

2. Recognize the draft pick cycle 

This one is really easy, draft picks become more valuable the closer you get to the draft. This means we should buy picks after the draft (when teams in your league are optimistic about their playoff chances), and sell picks between the combine and the NFL draft. Draft picks are kind of like new cars, the second you make the pick (or drive it off the lot) it loses significant value. 

In one of my primary leagues, we saw the 1.10 (Xavier Worthy) traded for the 2.05 (Ja’Tavion Sanders) and Brandon Aiyuk, even with Aiyuks injury, the process with this trade was excellent and illustrates how draft frenzy can be used to create value and improve your overall roster construction.

3. Avoid sunk-cost fallacy

Sometimes (a lot of the time) draft picks bust, Dynasty nerds has a great article [here](https://www.dynastynerds.com/intro-to-dynasty-vol-3-rookie-draft-rookie-picks-and-a-brief-scouting-primer/) regarding rookie hit rates. It is totally ok to use proven metrics (like the 525 rule) to assess your draft picks and cut ties with those who won’t pan out. Patience is a virtue, holding out hope for mediocre players is suicide. For example, It was evident that Will Levis sucked after his rookie season, the same was true for Quentin Johnston. Even after their rookie seasons, you could have recovered some value for either of these players, now? Good luck. 

This also applies when you trade for a player. I traded Travis Etienne and Zach Charbonnet for Rachaad White and a late 2025 first before week 1. I liked White's ppr upside and while I was not expecting him to repeat as a top 5 running back, I thought he had a clear path to another top 15-20 finish (he is RB19 in my league). Yet as the season began,I noticed the committee approach in Tampa Bay, and the emergence of Bucky Irving, which led me to send White, Kenneth Walker, and DJ. Moore for Rome Odunze, Chris Olave and Travis Etienne (ironically I got Etienne back). Olave was an obvious buy candidate for me, and I have Odunze significantly above DJ Moore in my personal rankings. Moral of the story? Do not be afraid to admit your mistakes. Recoup value and move on.

4. Attack league-mate biases

This is another easy one, everyone has biases, whether they admit them is another story. There are some obvious ones in my league: college biases, and NFL biases. We have a guy who loves the Bills and the Seminoles, it is unfortunate for his dynasty team how much influence his outsized exposure to those teams has in both his draft process, and roster construction (he has 5 Bills, none are Josh Allen). This is even better when you combine the college/youth bias with the NFL bias. JJ McCarthy was drafted to Minnesota, you can bet the Vikings fan in our league was trading around the first round to get him. 

I am not immune from this myself, I have Trevor Lawrence on most of my dynasty teams, and I drafted Brian Thomas in multiple leagues. So how do you exploit this? Attack your league mates' bias, if you have Malik Nabers and there is a Giants fan, they probably have more faith in him than anyone else. If you have the 1.03, trade it to the Raiders fan so they can grab Shedeur Sanders. If you have some random WR5 who flashed a good game (Jalen Coker) sell him to the Panthers fan. If you do not believe these biases exist, take a look at your league. How many guys have players from teams they like?

5. Trust your process

This may run counterintuitive to point three, but it remains relevant. Trust your process and evaluation. Patience will help you hold the guys who may not perform right out of the gate, but will perform down the road. Jaxson Smith Njigba was the WR55 last season, which was a big disappointment for the first wideout off the board in most leagues. This year? He is the WR7.  Owners were probably not selling JSN at a discount, but this is the NFL, and we know development often takes time (and people are always looking for instant gratification). Trey McBride went from buried behind Zach Ertz to the TE2 overall. It takes talent and opportunity to shine, look for players who may not have produced big numbers, but did show flashes when they got opportunities. Maybe throw an offer at the Marvin Harrison Jr owner who believed they had the next Justin Jefferson (he still could be!).

Those are some of my tips to improve at dynasty, I hope some of this is actionable for you!  Link to the article is here: https://automaticfirstdown.com/f/five-essential-tips-for-dynasty-fantasy-football Let us know in the comments where you find an edge in dynasty.