Blowouts in College Basketball This Year
It seems like there are more blowouts in 2025 than usual. Like, a lot more. So, I dug into the data, and – guess what? – that’s exactly what’s happening.
KenPom defines a blowout as a win of 20 or more points. Three major conferences – SEC, B1G, and Big 12 – are all seeing blowouts at a pace well above the average of recent years.
| Conference | Percent of games that were blowouts over the previous 10 years | Percent of games that have been blowouts in 2024-25 season |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | 14.5% | 24.1% |
| Big 12 | 11.8% | 27.8% |
| Big Ten | 12.6% | 22.6% |
(These numbers are for conference games only.)
For you data nerds (like me), that’s about 2 standard deviations above the mean. In any one conference, that should only happen once every 21 years – but it’s happening in all three conferences in the same year. Coincidence? I think not.
Possible reasons for this:
Reduced parity due to the transfer portal – “Talent is clustering at a few schools at the top of conferences because that’s where the other good players are.” I don’t think this it, because, while players want to win, they also want playing time. Too many players transfer from top programs to lower ranked programs to get more floor time.
Reduced parity due to NIL – “Talent is clustering a few schools at the top of conferences because that’s where the money is.” This may have something to do with it, but not all of it. Yes, players go where the money is, but that doesn’t explain why coaches are leaving their starters on the floor when they’re up by 25. There’s gotta be more.
The NCAA Net rating – My knowledge of the Net Rating is limited, but as I understand it, the Net uses efficiency numbers (read: offensive output) when calculating rankings, and it does not cap the margin of victory. These ratings affect eligibility and seeding for the NCAA tournament. So, the formula for the Net is fostering a win big/win now mentality. If that means leaving their starters out on the floor rather than giving their less experienced players some floor time, so be it. If it means jacking up threes when you’re already up by 20, so be it. Possible injury risk? So be it.
What do you think? Any thoughts on why the number of blowouts would be so much higher this year?