Major Winter Weather possible Sunday - Monday (1/5-6)
Hello everyone,
With 2025 hot off the press, we begin the new year with the potential for a major snowstorm. Snow lovers, buckle up.
Areas between Columbus, Cincy, and Lexington should closely monitor the weather forecast over the coming days. Stay tuned!
UPDATE as of 2:30 pm on 1/5: the snow has already started to our SW. We’re about 5 hours away from the first flakes falling to the ground. As the low passes to our south, a dry slot may form over our area, reducing snowfall as the moisture slips out to the east. This portion of the system may also bring sleet or freezing rain for an hour or two, but accumulations would be very light. I feel the HRRR is a tiny bit overestimated. Here are my updated predictions for end of Monday:
Downtown Columbus, Reynoldsburg = 4-8”
Marysville, Delaware = 2-5”
Marion, Mansfield = 1-4”
Grove City, London, Lancaster = 5-9”
Dublin, Powell, Hilliard, UA = 4-7”
WCH, Chillicothe = 7-12”
UPDATE as of 3:30 pm on 1/5: you will see light precipitation on the radar, but nothing is likely to reach the ground. We’re short on moisture for the time being. Most models don’t show snow arriving to the ground for several more hours. It may arrive ahead of schedule, which would bump estimated totals up by 0.5-1” or so. Heaviest precipitation will arrive around midnight.
UPDATE as of 4:00 pm on 1/5: I really think NWS should include Franklin in the Winter Storm Warning, especially for the SW portion of the county. A nice band of snow is setup for Monday afternoon if we can overcome the dry air and keep a bit of moisture. Snow starting in the next 3-4 hours, maybe earlier.
UPDATE as of 6:30 pm on 1/5: light snow will develop in the next hour or so. The real precipitation is still in S Indiana/N Kentucky. That will arrive around midnight and bring the heavy rates. We had some slight jogging south, but that has since rebounded on the HRRR and RAP, so I’m going to keep my predictions as is from the 2:30 pm update. Remember, storm totals are at the end of Monday. I expect light snow Monday morning and afternoon, but the bulk will be overnight.
UPDATE as of 7:15 pm on 1/5: the dry air and south shifts are winning. The heaviest stuff is still 5 hours out, but I’m not seeing the juice I want to see in this storm if I’m being honest. New predictions:
Downtown Columbus, Reynoldsburg = 3-6”
Marysville, Delaware = 2-4”
Marion, Mansfield = 1-2”
Grove City, London, Lancaster = 3-8”
Dublin, Powell, Hilliard, UA = 3-6”
WCH, Chillicothe = 7-12”
Still time for shifting, but I’m not hopeful. 0z HRRR comes in an hour or so. That will be one of the last runs to hope for positive results. The dry air is king here.
UPDATE as of 8:15 pm on 1/5: further south shifts and dry air will likely push the line of heavy snow OUT of Franklin. As such, my totals are heavily reduced:
Downtown Columbus, Reynoldsburg = 2-4”
Marysville, Delaware = 1-2”
Marion, Mansfield = 0-2”
Grove City, London, Lancaster = 3-6”
Dublin, Powell, Hilliard, UA = 2-5”
WCH, Chillicothe = 7-10”
I am going to take a break from looking at data for a while unless there’s a big change. I hope it shifts up and proves me wrong, but I’m not hopeful. Stay safe tonight everyone.
UPDATE as of 9:00 pm on 1/5: no more models, only looking at radar! We have a nice little band over us, but the start of the real moisture is entering Ohio now. Rates will increase for the next 3 hours.
UPDATE as of 9:30 pm on 1/5: a very heavy band located over Dayton is headed toward Columbus, especially south metro. Travel will be very difficult during the band. Arrival in 30 min or so
UPDATE as of 11:00 pm on 1/5: heavy snow in Dublin. Rates will increase by midnight. Dry air is still a risk on the back side, but we do have a chance to get some more moisture that’s in S Indiana. May need to add an inch to my 8:15 pm totals.
UPDATE as of 11:30 pm on 1/5: I am seeing more moisture available to our SW. If these bands survive, they could bring additional bursts of heavy snow. New projected totals for end of day Monday:
Downtown Columbus, Reynoldsburg = 3-5”
Marysville, Delaware = 2-4”
Marion, Mansfield = 0-2”
Grove City, London, Lancaster = 4-7”
Dublin, Powell, Hilliard, UA = 3-6”
WCH, Chillicothe = 8-12”
FINAL UPDATE as of 7:45 am on 1/6: while most of us were sleeping, NWS upped Franklin to a Winter Storm Warning. Franklin is a Level 2 right now, many counties to the south are at Level 3. I am expecting another inch or so on the backend of the storm through about 1 or 2 pm. I think my predictions were pretty close, but would love it if people could confirm snow totals. Thanks for joining everyone!