Way too early governor rundown: Northeast Edition

Maryland

Wes Moore is among the most popular governors in the country (#3 per Morning Consult, only behind the God-Emperor of Vermont and Andy Beshear), he's announced his reelection campaign and is all but certain to cruise to victory. Popular Democrat in a blue state? No chance it's competitive. State Delegate Chris Bouchat has said that he's retiring from the legislature but considering a run statewide, so he's probably going to be the Republican nominee unless Larry Hogan jumps in, but given Moore's popularity Hogan's probably better off waiting.

Initial Rating: Safe D

Pennsylvania

Josh Shapiro remains popular in Pennsylvania despite a few controversies coming out during the veepstakes, he's very likely to run for a second term and is in a strong position to extend the string of impressive victories Democrats have enjoyed in governor elections. Rep. Dan Meuser (PA-09) has publicly discussed challenging Shapiro, as has state treasurer Stacy Garrity. Meuser is a modest overperformer in his blood-red east central PA district, I'm honestly wondering if he's just looking for an excuse to leave Congress because his chances of winning are pretty low. Which, I mean, that's fair, the House doesn't seem like a healthy work environment at the moment. Garrity is a bit of a stronger choice, she won an upset victory in 2020 against the Democratic incumbent treasurer and was reelected in 2024 by 6 points, running solidly ahead of Trump both times, but beating Shapiro is going to be a tough task regardless of who Republicans go with. Doug Mastriano hasn't ruled out going for a rematch either, but I don't think Republican primary voters are that stupid... right?

Initial Rating: Likely D, but closer to safe than lean.

New Jersey

I included Virginia in the last one, I was going to put Jersey here, but it turns out that the past few months have seen a ton of developments in this race (makes sense, the primary is less than five months out), so I'm going to skip it here and probably write a separate post on it. Jersey politics is wild.

New York

Ah, Kathy Hochul. The fifth least liked governor in the country, she's pissed off basically everyone at this point with her flip-flopping and clashes with the legislature. A Siena College poll from December has her losing to "someone else" 57-33. That's just one poll, and "generic opponent" doesn't have the baggage and weaknesses an actual candidate inevitably will, but that's still a pretty bad sign. Unsurprisingly, she's drawn at least one primary challenger- Rep. Ritchie Torres (NY-15) hasn't declared quite yet but he's been touring the state while blasting Hochul. That sounds an awful lot like campaigning to me. Torres is generally pretty progressive, but in the past few years he's taken a tough-on-crime approach and he's also a staunch supporter of Israel (although that's probably not hugely relevant in a governor race). Former Rep Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) has also talked about running, and Andrew Cuomo or 2022 primary challenger Jumaane Williams could always try again. There's no shortage of Democrats in New York, and Hochul's best chance might be if enough challengers come at her that she can squeak by with a plurality. On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17) is widely speculated to be running, he's a popular moderate who won by an impressive 6 points in a district Harris won by a bit over half a point. Some of that's due to Mondaire Jones being a flip-flopping carpetbagger, but Lawler is undeniably a strong candidate. If Hochul survives her primary he'll be a serious threat. That said, he's probably the only person who could hold his district, so House Republicans might put pressure on him to run for reelection instead. Lee Zeldin could also try for a rematch, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has been identified as having ambitions for higher office with his culture war stunts (mostly involving trans women bc of course) and his open support for Trump. That'll play well with the primary voters, but not so much with the state's generally liberal electorate- he's probably the weakest of the three Republicans by a good bit.

Initial Rating: Likely D, but heavily dependent on how the primaries go. If Hochul gets primaried, it's probably Safe D, but Hochul v Lawler might even be a tossup.

Connecticut

Ned Lamont is pretty popular. If he runs for reelection, basically every prominent Democrat in the state has said that he won't face a challenge, but if he retires, Lt Gov Susan Bysiewicz, Comptroller Steve Scanlon, AG William Tong, outgoing Hartford mayor Luke Bronin, and more could all jump in. Lamont has said that he's open to the idea of a third term, but he hasn't said anything definitive. The Republican bench includes state senator Heather Somers, 2018 and 2022 nominee Bob Stefanowski (you'd think that losing twice would make you rethink trying for a third rematch but whatever), and New Britain mayor Erin Stewart. I can't find much on Somers and Stefanowski's two losses speak for themselves, but Stewart seems like a strong choice, she's a young, moderate mayor of a pretty blue city who's overseen a period of growth and development. If Lamont runs, though, she'll probably want to keep her powder dry.

Initial Rating: Safe D

Rhode Island

Dan McKee is tied with Tina Kotek for the dubious title of second least popular governor. The same was true in 2022, and it didn't stop him from winning by 19, but his opponent then was a complete political nobody. He became governor after Gina Raimondo joined Biden's cabinet, and narrowly won his primary with less than a third of the vote in a splintered field. The runner-up in that race, former corporate executive Helena Foulkes, is discussing another run, and reportedly Raimondo is considering a comeback. McKee is definitely vulnerable in his primary, but Raimondo was never that popular either and Foulkes already failed once so who knows how that goes. As for the Republicans- what Republicans? Allan Fung already failed twice and couldn't win RI-02 in 2022, I don't know if he's interested in running for higher office again, so that basically just leaves 2022 nominee Ashley Kallus, who lost to an unpopular incumbent by 19, and no-name state legislators. It's probably going to be a no-name state legislator, isn't it.

Initial Rating: Likely D, but if Republicans can't find a viable candidate it goes up to safe.

Massachusetts

Back to governors that people actually like, Maura Healey really doesn't have anything to worry about. Worcester County Sheriff Lewis Evangelidis seems like the most likely sacrificial lamb at this point, but sheriff, you're no Charlie Baker. Speaking of Baker, he's got a nice job at the NCAA and the state party kinda disowned him, he's not coming back.

Initial Rating: Safe D

Vermont

The nation's most popular governor, King Philip I of Vermont won a fifth term in November by nearly 52%, claiming over 73% of the vote in the best Republican performance since 1946, and for the first time in his tenure he suggested that people vote Republican further down the ballot and that netted the party the lt governorship, 6 state senate seats, 19 state house seats, and knocked several points off the margins for the state row officers even though half of them were facing H. Brooke Paige, the guy who's a hobbyist political candidate. He's swept every town in the state twice now, by the way. If Phil Scott wants a sixth term, there's no force on Earth that can stop him. If he retires, though, it's an entirely different story. Newly elected Lt. Gov John Rodgers is the most obvious successor, but there's a handful of other liberal Republicans running around in the state who could conceivably win. Former US Attorney and lesbian environmentalist Christina Nolan comes to mind, I haven't heard about her since her 2022 senate bid (she lost the primary) but she'd be a viable statewide candidate as well. No idea why she's a Republican, btw, she literally sides with the Democrats on everything lmao. Or VT Republicans could do what their southern neighbors did and commit political suicide by nominating a conservative, that's always a possibility as well. Any of the state row officers, as well as Rep. Becca Balint, are potential Democratic candidates if Scott retires, but none of them are going to sacrifice their current positions to defy the God-Emperor of the Green Mountain.

Initial Rating: Safe R if Scott runs, if he doesn't I'll start it at Likely D but it depends on the candidates.

New Hampshire

Kelly Ayotte has only been in office for four days, she hasn't said a thing about reelection plans and we don't know how popular she'll be once she settles into the governorship. We also really don't know anything about what Democrats might run, Rep. Chris Pappas would be a strong choice but if Ayotte is well liked he probably won't give up his seat. NH doesn't have any other statewide elected officials, but there's way too many state legislators (seriously the NH House has 400 members it's ridiculous) so finding a sacrificial lamb shouldn't be too hard even if finding a viable candidate might.

Initial Rating: Likely R, but I'm really just going off her 9-point 2024 win here.

Maine

For our final state, Janet Mills is term limited, and with no lieutenant governor or state row offices, there's a real power vacuum. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who made headlines last year for trying to keep Trump off the state's primary ballot (although the Colorado case largely overshadowed hers), could have been in part doing that as a strategic move to get herself in a better position for a governor bid. Troy Jackson, senate president, rural populist, and anti-Canadian patriot (his wiki page brings up him fighting to close the Canadian border multiple times) is probably the best positioned candidate, but former state house speaker Rachel Talbot-Ross, her successor Ryan Fecteau, either of the state's federal representatives, or a variety of state legislators could also jump in. That's really the same list as the potential challengers against Susan Collins, though, which makes both races harder to get a feel for. On the other side of the coin, the Republican field isn't much more defined. Former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (ME-02), former Auburn mayor Jason Levesque, and some state legislators who don't have Qs in their names are all being talked about, as is Jonathan Bush- yeah, those Bushes, he's Dubya's first cousin. Don't think he's a war criminal though, that's not hereditary. That aside, Maine's last Republican governor was so unpopular that the state changed its voting system to make sure he couldn't stage a comeback (he won by a plurality both times), and they've failed to capitalize on Trump's successes in ME-02, so I'm not holding my breath for a strong candidate to appear out of the blue (out of the red?) for them.

Initial Rating: Likely D