Is this completely derisked at this point?

Guys,

We have to assume that Vodafone tested hundreds of devices and they have just about derisked the technology now. I am left pondering whether there is any significant risk left in the technology at this point.

As I ponder this question I conclude the risks remaining are:

  1. No proof the technology works with hundreds or thousands of phones simultaneously. It is assumed yes at this point.

  2. Risk that the larger block 2 have a design flaw.

  3. Risk that their launch provider fails.

  4. Risk that when Vodafone says about half of their customers will pay for the service, it’s not a monthly charge they will pay but merely a charge they will pay on occasion when it’s needed. This is the largest risk. Occasional payment is not sufficient for massive revenues. We need monthly payments.

But arguably this is something that Vodafone is highly encouraged to price sufficiently high enough on the occasional access that a monthly pass makes more sense. We have to trust that a 50/50 revenue sharing agreement is one that our MNO partner will execute in a way that maximizes profit for both parties.

What other risks am I not thinking about this morning? Because I’m really thinking about taking half of my remaining cash and buying all the ASTS shares I can. It just seems so derisked at this point and on track to become a cash beast in just a few years. And I just struggle to see how it’s not a triple digit stock in 2-3 years.

Thoughts?