The only update to this list from yesterday is the addition of the IRS to our radar. Our best estimate suggests a 20% reduction, though no news articles currently confirm this figure. If the Fair Tax Act of 2025 were to be implemented, although unlikely, it could result in a 100% reduction with the agency facing dissolution.

Department of Education (ED)

• Reduction Type: Planned RIFs, Deferred Resignations, Early Retirements
• Estimated % Cut: Potentially 100%
• Notes: The agency may face dissolution, transfer of responsibilities to state governments or other federal entities, or a mass RIF leaving only essential staff.
• Source: Associated Press, Reuters 

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)

• Reduction Type: Planned RIFs, Contractor Terminations
• Estimated % Cut: Potentially 100%
• Notes: The agency may face dissolution, transfer to the State Department, or a mass RIF leaving only essential staff. Senior staff placed on administrative leave; numerous contractors fired amid foreign aid freeze.
• Source: Associated Press, Reuters

Office of Personnel Management (OPM)

• Reduction Type: Planned RIFs, Deferred Resignations, Early Retirements
• Estimated % Cut: 70% (initial 30%)
• Notes: Internal staffing & programs targeted.
• Source: Federal News Network

General Services Administration (GSA)

• Reduction Type: Planned RIFs, Deferred Resignations, Early Retirements
• Estimated % Cut: ~50%
• Notes: All programs and personnel targeted. RIF is expected “shortly” after Feb. 6
• Source: Federal News Network

Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

• Reduction Type: Deferred Resignations, Potential RIFS
• Estimated % Cut: To be determined ~20% (unconfirmed)
• Notes: In January, President Trump issued an executive order freezing federal hiring, prompting the IRS to rescind job offers for start dates after February 8, or unconfirmed dates. IRS employees in critical filing season roles must work until May 15, 2025, before deciding to accept the deferred resignation offer. The administration warns that if voluntary departures fall short, layoffs may follow.
• Fantasy Economics: President Trump has proposed abolishing the federal income tax and replacing it with revenue generated from tariffs, suggesting a return to a pre-1913 tax system. This proposal includes the creation of an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariff revenues.
• Fair Tax Act of 2025: The bill seeks to abolish the IRS and repeal all personal and corporate income taxes and the death tax, gift tax, and payroll tax. Replace with a consumption-based national sales tax.
• Source: Associated Press, Federal News Network, Fox Business, Kiplinger

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

• Reduction Type: Forced Resignations, Terminations, Purge of Investigators
• Estimated % Cut: 5,000 (everyone who worked on Jan 6th cases) plus all probationary employees
• Notes: Senior officials in multiple cities (Miami, Philadelphia, D.C., New Orleans, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles) ordered to resign or be fired. Career law enforcement officials, including those involved in Jan. 6 and Trump-related cases, facing termination.
• Source: CBS News, Reuters

Department of Justice (DOJ)

• Reduction Type: Mass Firing of Federal Prosecutors
• Estimated % Cut: ~30 dismissed so far
• Notes: Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove ordered the firing of prosecutors involved in Jan. 6 cases following President Trump's clemency for individuals charged in connection with the riot.
• Source: Associated Press

Multiple Agencies (Inspectors General Firings)

• Reduction Type: Mass Firings of Inspectors General
• Estimated % Cut: 17 inspectors general dismissed
• Notes: Firings conducted without the required 30-day notice to Congress, raising legal concerns.
• Source: Reuters